Thursday, January 24, 2008

AAPL’s on sale...

For anyone who has been looking for an entry point into Apple stock and has a long term time horizon (over a year, preferably quite a bit longer), now might be your best shot.

After posting an insanely great quarter, the stock fell to below $140 per share from a high just a few weeks ago of over $200. Yes, their guidance going forward shows slower growth, but they are always very reserved when discussing the future. I can't remember a time in the last 5 years when they did not beat their internal guidance.

The key is that there is nothing fundamentally wrong with this company. The decline is momentum panic selling. I have full confidence that it will recover to over the $200 level within 12 months as long as there is no meltdown of the entire economy. I would still rather be in this stock than pretty much any other. Steve Jobs is still in charge of course and he is one of the most visionary people in any industry.

"For its fiscal first-quarter, Apple earned $1.58 billion, or $1.76 a share, on revenue of $9.6 billion. During the same period a year ago, Apple earned $1 billion, or $1.14 a share, on $7.12 billion in sales. In a statement, Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs said that the results showed the company posting its highest quarterly earnings and sales in history." -CBS Marketwatch Article

Full disclosure:
I personally am not buying at this point in time as AAPL already makes up about 15% of my total net worth and it is generally not recommended to go over 10% in a single stock.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

You write very well.